Back Palmer, Watkins and Vardy – FPL tips & team of week
Thomas Woods
BBC Sport Senior Journalist
The penultimate Fantasy Premier League weekend will be a time to go big or go home for many game players, with seasons in the balance.
A problem, however, is that the fixtures in gameweek 37 are hard to predict.
Teams handed supposedly the easiest home fixtures are not teams you can often rely on – relegated Leicester (v Ipswich) and Everton (v Southampton).
Who knows what line-ups Manchester City and Crystal Palace will put out after the FA Cup final, when they play their league games on Tuesday.
Likewise Spurs and Manchester United, who play in the Europa League final next Wednesday and will probably look to protect some key figures beforehand.
On top of that, Mohamed Salah, Cole Palmer and Bukayo Saka – the game’s three most expensive midfielders – have a total of seven returns between them in the past seven games.
That’s right – we’ve entered FPL silly season where anything can happen.
Don’t miss our FPL special week 37 Q&A with expert FPL Heisenberg, live on the BBC Sport website at 15:30 BST on Friday, 16 May.
How did last week’s FPL team of the week do?
Oh Erling. It was such a good move on paper bringing Haaland in against one of the worst teams in Premier League history, but who knew Southampton would turn into a version of a prime-Mourinho defensive side?
Just two attacking returns and 37 points is not what you want at this stage of the season.
Keeper and defence
Jordan Pickford, Everton, keeper, £5.1m – Southampton (h)
A simple pick against the league’s worst attack – if only FPL choices were always this easy!
Josko Gvardiol (£6.5m) and Ruben Dias (£5.5m), both Manchester City – Bournemouth (h)
FPL managers might be worried about Pep roulette as City play the FA Cup final three days before this game at Etihad Stadium, but the Spanish manager can’t really afford to rest players with Champions League qualification in the balance.
Gvardiol and Dias are near-guaranteed starters and have five clean sheets in their past seven, with regular bonus points in that spell.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have dropped off attacking wise.
They are top four for expected goals (xG) in the season with 64.4 from 36 games, but over the past seven matches they have dropped to 12th with just 9.39 xG.
Vitalii Mykolenko, Everton, £4.4m – Southampton (h)
The Ukrainian joins Pickford for the same reasons as his team-mate, with the Everton and City duos making it a first double-double defence in the team of the week this season.
End of season differentials & rivals face-off
Midfield
Bukayo Saka, Arsenal, £10.3m – Newcastle (h)
Saka has not delivered a return since week 30 but since then, in five games, he has an expected goal involvement (xGI) of 3.1.
In comparison, team-mate Leandro Trossard has an xGI of 2.9 but has managed five goal involvements in the same period.
So Saka is playing well and has been unlucky. Back him to produce in this key game with Arsenal’s second-place spot at risk if they lose.
Cole Palmer (captain), Chelsea, £10.5m – Manchester United (h)
This is the game in which Palmer scored a hat-trick last season and he’s again in prime position to produce in a key match for Chelsea’s Champions League qualification hopes.
United have been awful this season and also have most of their attention on Wednesday’s Europa League final.
Like Saka, Palmer is another player underperforming his xGI with just four returns from an xGI of 8.2 since week 22.
Bryan Mbeumo, Brentford, £8.3m – Fulham (h)
Mbeumo’s ownership, post-week 36, was 46.4%. FPL managers have invested heavily in the Cameroon forward for the run-in and he hasn’t fully lived up to expectations, with just an assist in each of his past two games.
But that could change a Fulham side who need to win in their bid to finish eighth and secure a possible European spot.
It could be an open game and that will suit Brentford and Mbeumo.
Jarrod Bowen, West Ham, £7.7m – Nottingham Forest (h)
With four goals and two assists in his past six games, Bowen is finishing the season with a bang – unlike Forest, who don’t have a clean sheet in six matches.
The onus is on Forest to be on the front foot to get three points in their bid for Champions League football, which means Bowen should get his chance on the break.
Bukayo Saka has just eight FPL points in his past six games – but his underlying data suggests that should have been much more
Strikers
Jamie Vardy, Leicester, £5.3m – Ipswich (h)
There’s a big focus on fixtures and narrative as the end of the season approaches, and Vardy is one player with everything in place for a successful week.
He has two returns in his past two games, a nine-pointer the last time he faced a relegated team at home (two matches ago), and will be facing a rubbish defence in his last appearance as a Leicester City player at King Power Stadium.
Would you put it past him to sign off with a goal?
Ollie Watkins (vice captain), Aston Villa, £9m – Tottenham (h)
With his 16th goal of the season last week, Watkins is now the third-highest-scoring FPL striker.
Like Palmer facing Manchester United, this game is set up for success for Watkins as a poor Spurs team focused on Europe travel to Villa Park.
Only Mohamed Salah has had more big chances than Watkins’ 39 this season. He’ll get a couple at least against Spurs and hopefully, for the sake of FPL points, converts them.
Beto, Everton, £4.8m – Southampton (h)
Off the back of two productive games – two goals, eight shots, seven in the box – Beto makes the team of the week.
Like Vardy, there’s a narrative with this one – Everton’s final game at Goodison Park and a desire to go out with a bang against one of the worst teams in Premier League history.
Subs’ bench
Jakub Stolarczyk, Leicester City, keeper, £4m – Ipswich (h)
Enzo Fernandez, Chelsea, midfielder, £4.7m – Manchester United (h)
Rico Lewis, Manchester City, defender, £4.3m – Bournemouth (h)
Nathan Collins, Brentford, defender, £4.6m – Fulham (h)
Team total cost: £95m
The team of the week is selected based on current FPL prices to fit within a £100m budget, as if you were playing a Free Hit.
