‘We are convinced’ – but is this a comeback too far for Madrid?
Real Madrid are the defending European champions – and despite the odds being against them some pundits are still tipping them to go through against Arsenal
Jess Anderson
BBC Sport journalist
“Anything can happen.”
Those were the words of Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti, the most successful boss in Champions League history, after his side’s 3-0 defeat by Arsenal in the first leg of their quarter-final at Emirates Stadium last week.
The phrase is a football cliche but, when it comes to 15-time champions of Europe Real Madrid and the Champions League, it is often true.
However, when they take to the pitch against Arsenal on Wednesday they will have to do something they have only managed once before in Europe’s top-tier tournament – come back from a 3-0 first-leg deficit.
Declan Rice’s sensational free-kick double and Mikel Merino’s curled strike made it advantage Arsenal heading into the return leg at the Bernabeu.
“If you look at the game [last week] there is no possibility,” said Ancelotti about a potential comeback.
“But nobody expected Rice would score two goals from set-pieces, so in football anything can happen.
“The possibility is low but we have to try 100%.”
Real are comeback kings – but history is against them
On three out of the past four occasions on which Real Madrid have trailed after the first leg in the Champions League, they have fought back to reach the next round – against Wolfsburg in 2015-16 and in 2021-22 against both Paris St-Germain and Manchester City.
But Arsenal can take belief from the fact this is the joint-largest deficit Madrid have ever trailed by heading into a Champions League second leg.
The last time they faced such a task was against Borussia Dortmund in the 2012-13 semi-final, when Robert Lewandowski netted a hat-trick in a 4-1 win for Jurgen Klopp’s side in Germany.
Real won the return match 2-0 in Madrid, but Dortmund progressed to the final on aggregate.
In fact, the only time they have fought back from three goals down after a first leg came in the European Cup against Derby County in the last 16 of the 1975-76 edition, winning 6-5 on aggregate following a 4-1 defeat at the Baseball Ground.
A deficit of three goals or more has been overturned just four times since the European Cup became the Champions League in 1992.
Liverpool trailed 3-0 against Barcelona going into the second leg of their 2018-19 semi-final at Anfield, but stormed into the final with four unanswered goals.
Deportivo La Coruna, against AC Milan in 2004, and Roma, in 2018 against Barcelona, are the only other teams to have come back from three goals down after a first leg in the Champions League era.
But one team have overturned a four goal-deficit – Barcelona in the game christened ‘La Remontada’ in 2016-17 – when they beat PSG 6-1 at the Nou Camp.
Stats company Opta gives Arsenal an 89.7% chance of progressing to the semi-finals, and Real have lost five games in the competition this season – a tally that equals a club record.
“Every single time Madrid did a miracle, the preview said it is not possible,” said Guillem Balague on the EuroLeagues podcast.
“But on this occasion, you are talking about a team that don’t defend well, there is no architecture in the midfield, there is no patterns. They depend a lot on the individuals, as always. They haven’t got a capacity to react.
“There are so many details that suggest it is not possible for them to turn this around, including the amount of running they do – they ran 12km less than Arsenal [in the first leg].
“They are still not players who do the work defensively. They think they can just switch on at any minute and turn any game around, and I don’t think that’s possible, not with this team.”
The omens are good for Arsenal
It’s a night that’s made for Real Madrid – Bellingham
As James Horncastle said on the EuroLeagues podcast, there are heavyweights of the European game who are still backing Madrid to progress – including Champions League winners with AC Milan Alessandro Costacurta and Zvonimir Boban, and former Madrid boss Fabio Capello.
“Amazing things happen in football, amazing things happen at the Bernabeu,” said Horncastle. “I know this Real Madrid side has injuries, it has flaws, it is not balanced.
“I was not surprised to see in the Italian papers and on Italian TV, that when they were asked to predict who would reach the semi-finals, three pundits – Costacurta, Boban and Capello – still refused to go against Madrid.
“It still says a lot about Madrid’s reputation that it is not something you can take for granted that Arsenal will progress at the Bernabeu.”
But the omens are good for Mikel Arteta’s outfit.
Arsenal’s victory was the 12th time an English side have won by three or more goals in the first leg of a Champions League knockout stage tie, and every time the English side has gone through to the next round.
The Gunners also have a good record when leading after the first leg of a Champions League knockout match – they have progressed from six of the eight ties they have won the opening match.
Furthermore, they remain unbeaten against Real Madrid in European competition, with two wins and a draw, and have not conceded a single goal across their three meetings.
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After the first leg at the Emirates, Real’s England star Jude Bellingham said: “One place where crazy things happen is our house.”
Speaking at Tuesday’s news conference, Bellingham added: “It’s a night that’s made for Real Madrid.
“A night that would go down in history but also something that people are familiar with around this part of this world. Hopefully we can add another special night.”
No Champions League campaign epitomised that more than in 2021-22, when Real pulled off sensational fightbacks against PSG, Chelsea and then Manchester City in one of the most incredible runs in the competition’s history.
Last season they were minutes away from losing their semi-final tie with Bayern Munich before turning things around with two late goals at the Bernabeu.
In both of those campaigns, Ancelotti’s side went on to win the competition.
“We know we’re strong at home with our fans,” said goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois. “If we score one or two, quickly… I think it’s possible.”
It is that ‘never say die’ attitude that has served Real so well over the years.
